Turn Away from the (Fulda) Gap

Former DIRNSA/DNI McConnell is right in his assessment of the state of cyber conflict and the US’s disposition, but like so many of his generation he defaults to what he knows best and supposes we can secure the future if we look to the past. That would be great if the present, much less the future, were reflective of anything like the past so many cold warriors are familiar with. It is natural to try and frame current situations into familiar constructs, but the utility of such thinking ends in the classroom or salon: legacy futures will get us nowhere.

Reducing the impact of cyber conflict through deterrence (as it is commonly portrayed) and the sharing of information are admirable goals; ones we’ve been trying to accomplish without significant results for years.

Attribution requires a level of effort so massive and onerous the only way to make it fast and easy is to re-engineer how the Internet works and the government’s access to the necessary mechanisms. That is a task that is anything but fast or easy or more importantly: cheap. Barring a combination technical-legal breakthrough that is free, global in scope and universal in acceptance, attribution isn’t happening. No attribution, no deterrence (in a traditional sense).

The point of deterrence is to make an attack unthinkable. “Unthinkable” means a lot more when the threat is atomic vice digital. Government systems are attacked regularly; so are the systems of the private firms that support defense and intelligence work. There are only a few entities worldwide that can make use of the information that is stolen from targeted systems, so we have attribution in a meta sense, and justification to act in a meta fashion. Let me know how that strongly worded demarche goes over.

Public-Private partnerships are a great idea. We’ve got ISACs for just that purpose, but what have they done in any practical sense? Neither side is as open as they could or should be, no one talks about anything new. The NSA is a great national resource for critical industries that rely on a stable and secure cyberspace to operate, but no one is going to trust the assurance side of the NSA as long as it is tied to the snooping part. The reasons for keeping the agency’s two directorates together are strong, but the reasons for splitting them apart are more compelling (more on that in a separate venue).

It’s one thing to have an international agreement in place, but its folly to think that the most dangerous threats to a nation’s ability to operate in cyberspace would a) adhere to any regime they signed or b) would show up at the negotiating table in the first place. The most dangerous people in cyberspace – those who can and do actually use their weapons – don’t salute a flag, hold sovereign territory, or sign international agreements. For all the time, money and energy put forth trying to counter the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the world is surprisingly full of new nuclear powers (and those that belligerently aspire to achieve such status). Viewed through such a lens, every computer science department in every university is a weapons lab, every professor a national security resources that must be sequestered in Naukograds. Talk about unworkable.

It would be great if safety and security in cyberspace were a notional physics experiment where all the important factors are negligible and controllable, but it’s not, so the only real solutions are the practical ones. The way forward in securing cyberspace is not deterring threats, its making threats irrelevant.

Cyberspace is a construct with physical underpinggings. As long as those underpinnings are resilient enough to withstand or recover from attacks in a reasonable amount of time, an adversary can attack all day, every day, to no avail. Someone once said the war on terror should continue until terrorism is a nuisance, and so should it be for cyberspace. As someone who has spent a good chunk of his career addressing these issues it almost pains me to say it, but securing cyberspace is less about security as it is about resilience.

Resilience and security are not the same thing. You can try to make sound the same, but they’re just not. The problem is that “security” sells, “resilience” is like continuity of operations, and we all know how that’s viewed. Just look over at the shelf to your left, that gigantic three-ring binder with your COOP plan that has ½” of dust on it. Yeah, guys with resilience on their minds put that together. If anyone gets less respect organizationally than cyber security guys its resilience guys, which is a shame because of the two communities, the one that is more successful is the resilience crowd. Resilience is achievable. It is happening. Backups and hot sites and redundancy in connectivity, etc., etc. all contributes more to making cyber attacks irrelevant than firewalls, intrusion detection systems, or anti-virus software. Of course the latter is sexy, the former tedious grunt work. It’s not call the Comprehensive National Resilience Initiative, but it probably should be.

When you get down to it though, making cyberspace more secure isn’t about the physical, its about the behavioral. Most of the compromises suffered by the US government and the businesses that support national security and defense would go away if we had – early on in the ‘Net’s foray from the governmental to the public/commercial – established, promulgated, and enforced good behavior and safe practices. When BBS sysops ruled the roost, you complied with the rules or you were off-line. In our rush to watch dancing hamsters, participate in the worldwide garage sale, and speed access to nudity, being a good netizen didn’t just take a back seat, it was left in the driveway. No matter how hard we try to educate our respective workforces about cyber security, they’re still the weakest link in the cyber security chain. We loose billions in lost R&D and proprietary information that supports national security, yet we still don’t punish people for their digital sins the same way we would if they had committed the same violation in meat-space. Knowingly violating espionage laws gets you prison; knowingly violating corporate security policy is hardly detected.

That’s a shame because cyber security is the root of national security in the information age. The ability to project physical power means nothing – the trillions we spend on defense a waste – if that power can be made irrelelvent with a few lines of code. That’s all it takes if any one of the millions of moving parts associated with the design, construction, acquisition, and deployment of our first-world weapons platforms is compromised by an adversary. Make no mistake: the chinks in the armor of the military-industrial complex are too numerous to count, much less monitor or secure.

I support wholeheartedly any effort to really make cyberspace a safer and stronger place, but every few years I listen to the same speeches, read the same studies and ‘strategies’ and watch the same budget cycles burn through billions with no discernible  improvement in our security disposition. What I’d like the heavy hitters in the national security arena to do is stop ignoring the recommendations, stop buying the same non-solutions, stop relying on cold warriors, and start acting like they care as much about the ability of an adversary to run arbitrary code on a national security computer as they did nuclear fission occurring over Washington, New York, and Omaha.

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