Iran EBO

The Pentagon has plans for everything, including invading Canada, still, this is another data point to consider when setting your doomsday clock:

US contingency plans for air strikes on Iran extend beyond nuclear
sites and include most of the country’s military infrastructure, the
BBC has learned.

It is understood that any
such attack – if ordered – would target Iranian air bases, naval bases,
missile facilities and command-and-control centres.

Generally speaking the latter targets are the most important from an Effects Based Operations approach. I’m not an expert on the Iranian military. Absent orders from above are the Iranians trained to act on their own initiative? Not that we are likely to offer up many targets but . . . I guess if you believe that the Quds are operating in Iraq independent of the Mullahs, you’ll believe anything.

For those of you playing the indications and warning game at home:

BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner says the trigger for such an
attack reportedly includes any confirmation that Iran was developing a
nuclear weapon – which it denies.


Alternatively, our correspondent adds, a high-casualty attack on US
forces in neighbouring Iraq could also trigger a bombing campaign if it
were traced directly back to Tehran.

If you don’t believe Iran is going to go for the extended-dance IAEA remix Iraq did, nor that the US will play reindeer games with the UN, then the latter trigger is the one most likely to be pulled. How many casualties does “high” mean? Double digits at a single blow at least.

For my money I’d rather pursue the Global Guerrilla EBO approach to collapsing Iran.